Research and consultations on future challenges and opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean
Second Meeting on Foresight in Agriculture
2-3 October 2012
CIAT Headquarters, Cali, Colombia
- Better to be Foresighted than Myopic: A Foresight Framework for Agriculture, Food Security, And R&D in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Presentation on key discussion items
- Better to be Foresighted than Myopi… A Foresight Exercise Related to Agriculture, Food Security and R&B in LAC
First Meeting on Foresight in Agriculture
30 March 2012
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, D.C.
Recent years have seen important changes in the trends and factors affecting the agricultural sector and food security around the world, especially in developing countries. The degree of uncertainty in agricultural forecasts and scenarios has increased significantly. International organizations are giving increased attention to topics related to agriculture and food security, such as price volatility, climate change, land and water availability, biodiversity, bioenergy, and poverty, and they offer differing views as to what may happen and what policies and approaches to follow in the medium term.
In this changing context, it is important to define scenarios for the future development of agriculture and the food industry in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The task requires a systematic approach to the analysis of what we know (or what we believe we know) based on current forecasts, projections, and scenario-building. It is also important to determine areas of uncertain outcomes and unexpected external shocks and to define appropriate strategies for dealing with these.
The foresight exercise documented here is a crucial part of the process needed to define future strategies, policies, and investments in LAC, including the consideration of ways to deploy resources for agricultural research and development in the region.
- Analyze potential scenarios and relevant trends for the region and the world to provide guidance for agricultural technology and policy research, and for innovation and knowledge transfer in the region.
- Establish a network for policy makers, the private sector, researchers, and other stakeholders to contribute to this prospective exercise.
- Develop a framework for future foresight exercises.
- Demography, Urbanization and Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean:
Trends and Forecasts
José Luis Samaniego, Division of Sustainable Development and Human Settlements,
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
- Agricultural Projections: A View from the FAO
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Global Perspectives Studies Team, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations
- Agricultural Supply and Demand for Latin America and the Caribbean: Projections to 2050
Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of the Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
- The Dynamics of World Petroleum Markets
Ramón Espinasa, Lead Specialist, Oil & Gas, Inter-American Development Bank
- Commodity Markets and the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020
Steven Zahniser, US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
- Organización Latinoamericana de Energía (Olade)
- Foresight in LAC Agriculture: Agricultural Technology & Intellectual Property
Philip G. Pardey
- The Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture
Walter Vergara, Division Chief, Climate Change and Sustainability
- Agrimonde, October 2009
- Scenarios and challenges for feeding the world in 2050
- European Commission, Standing Committee on Agricultural Research. The 3rd SCAR Foresight Exercise on Sustainable Food Consumption and Production in a Resource-Constrained World (French)
- Prospective Analysis Agriculture Energy 2030
- Presentation of current research on foresight exercises related to macroeconomics, demography, technology, and agriculture.
- Discussion of projection and foresight methodologies for agricultural and agroindustrial production, marketing, and consumption.
- Based on the first and second outcomes, a framework to guide technology research activities in LAC and to create an agenda for future work on these issues.